The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision at 21:00 MSK, amid broad expectations for further rate increases this year.

Analysts’ forecasts

Several major banks foresee additional tightening before year-end, with differing magnitudes and timing across institutions.

• Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and RBC expect a cumulative rise of 75 bps by the end of the year.
• Barclays, BNP, Citi, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, HSBC, Nomura and Wells Fargo anticipate a 50 bps increase starting from today.
• Goldman projects a more modest 25 bps move in September.
• Jefferies diverges, expecting a 25 bps cut in December.
• Oxford Economics sees no policy change until 2026, followed by easing only in 2027.

Market pricing and Fed communication

Predictive markets assign probabilities close to current forecasts, leaving limited room for surprise from a routine 25 bps hike.

Polymarket shows 88% probability for a 25 bps increase and about 13% for no change, reflecting strong market pricing.

Investors will instead focus on the updated dot plot and the tone of Chair Kevin Warsh during the press conference for forward guidance.

Implications for risk assets and currencies

Rising rates tend to strengthen the dollar and reduce appetite for risk assets, a dynamic visible across crypto and equity markets recently.

Bitcoin has failed to sustain levels above $80K for three months, while crypto-ETF flows turned negative this week.

The Japanese yen fell to four-decade lows, bolstering the dollar and adding pressure on global risk allocations.

Altcoins have retraced the equivalent of roughly 900 days of collective market-cap gains, reflecting broad risk-off moves.

What will move markets

If the Fed’s projections are materially hawkish, markets will need to reprice the likely path for October and December decisions.

Absent stronger-than-expected signals, a routine 25 bps hike is unlikely to provoke a large immediate market reaction.