Fable 5.2 closed a Polymarket market by surpassing 60% on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark in recent evaluations.

Positions opened from a public wallet generated multiple profits, including one trade that returned +$180.89 (+115%) on HLE 60%+ during the market.

Results and wallet performance

The public wallet established several entries across different HLE thresholds, realizing gains as prices adjusted to new model outputs and sentiment.

Trades included an HLE 60%+ position bought at 46.5¢ that ultimately produced a net profit of +$180.89, representing +115% on settlement.

• HLE 60%+: entry at 46.5¢; profit amounted to +$180.89 (+115%), reflecting the market closing above the target on final resolution.
• HLE 58%+: entry at 72.2¢; realized gain was +$36.68 (+38.5%), following an upward repricing of probability after new model signals.
• Anthropic HLE record market: entry at 34¢; reserve settlement returned +$52.80 (+194%), contributing to the overall portfolio uplift during the payout.

Benchmark and market context

Humanity’s Last Exam is a demanding benchmark composed of thousands of expert-level questions across mathematics, natural sciences and other technical disciplines.

Markets on Polymarket offer contracts tied to model performance, with prices moving quickly as new evaluation results arrive and traders reassess probabilities.

Progress pace and historical reference

Historically, achieving 40% on HLE represented a notable milestone, whereas recent model iterations now reach 60% thresholds within a few releases.

Gemini Carbon previously reported a 59% result, highlighting the narrow margin between leading models and the swift improvements in evaluation outcomes.

Operational note

Following a recent wallet compromise, the team reported active measures to restore positions, reconcile PnL and resume normal account operations.

The wallet’s public trades remain transparent, and observed returns reflect realized settlements rather than speculative extrapolations of future performance in the market.

Observers should note these developments document recent evaluation shifts and corresponding market repricings without implying broader forecasts or advice.