CME Group's FedWatch tool shows the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting has risen to 82.9%.

Market probabilities

Only a week earlier markets placed the chance of easing at under 40%, so the latest move represents a rapid reassessment of monetary policy expectations.

The Federal Open Market Committee has its next scheduled meeting on 10.12.2025, which remains the primary event traders use to gauge near-term rate direction.

Context and mechanics

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, probabilities are derived from pricing in short-term interest-rate futures and reflect market-implied expectations of policy shifts.

Such changes in implied probabilities typically influence derivative valuations and can drive adjustments in positioning across short-term fixed-income markets and interest-rate sensitive assets.

What this means for markets

A move to 82.9% suggests traders now see a high likelihood of policy easing by the December meeting, prompting recalibration of forward rate curves and risk premia.

Market participants will continue to watch incoming economic data and official communications for confirmation of this repricing ahead of the meeting date.