Tom Lee of Fundstrat reduced his bitcoin forecast from $250 000 to just above $100 000 for year-end.

Forecast revision

Lee still believes bitcoin can revisit its all-time high, but he now anticipates a more modest rise culminating near $100 000.

October market shock

He described the price event on 10 October as an 'Armageddon', when a price shock triggered the largest automated liquidations recorded to date.

The episode, he says, wiped out nearly 2 million accounts and effectively removed about one-third of market makers from active liquidity provision.

Shift in market leadership

Following the drop, Lee notes that cryptocurrency has lost its role as a leading economic indicator and is now lagging behind other sectors, notably AI.

Remaining bullish signals

Despite the downgrade, Lee maintains a bullish stance based on historical patterns where bitcoin's strongest returns often occur within the year's top ten performance days.

• He argues that a concentrated number of large gains drives annual returns for bitcoin.
• Lee expects that some of those decisive positive days may still materialize before year-end.

The revised target reflects an altered risk assessment after the October liquidations and a recognition of shifting market dynamics toward other technology sectors.