Nikita reports that his primary Bitcoin scenario did not play out and he now considers price action consistent with scenario two.

Bitcoin outlook

After breaking the dynamic support, price failed to regain the rising wedge’s body, which leads Nikita to conclude that BTC is in a bearish trend.

Support zones and scenarios

Nikita expects a test of the $88-83.000 zone, followed by a corrective bounce and continuation toward lower levels under scenario two.

He outlines two alternatives: Scenario 1 as a deeper corrective rally returning to the wedge body, and Scenario 2 as a standard correction retesting the broken dynamic support.

Price blocks and accumulation areas

The first descending wave is nearing its end; key accumulation blocks are noted as follows: $88-79.000 for large-cap accumulation and $73-55.000 for position entries using a positional trading strategy.

Nikita marks $55-40.000 as the anticipated minimum bottom, referencing prior cycles where declines reached approximately ~77% from the cycle ATH.

Alternative triggers and range scenario

On the higher time frame, a weekly close above $98.000 would revert the market to scenario one, implying the breakout was false.

Conversely, invalidating the bullish case requires a drop below the structural low at $74.600, although holding that level could produce a broad range between ~$74.600-$125.000.

BTC dominance and altcoins

BTC dominance is falling alongside Bitcoin, with flows moving into stablecoins, indicating that institutional capital awaits a clearer signal.

Regarding altcoins, Nikita rejects the view that a bear market similar to late 2021 is inevitable, citing global monetary easing measures such as the end of QT by the Fed and stimulus actions, including plans around $110 billion and proposed checks of $2.000 per person in the United States.

On this macro backdrop, he considers a prolonged bear market for altcoins unlikely and highlights the potential for different dynamics than those seen during prior tightening cycles.