A liquidity-based model places Bitcoin's fair value at $165,000, while current market prices trade at an approximate 47% discount to that estimate.

Model and valuation

The model uses global liquidity inputs to derive a balancing level that the authors identify near $165,000 as fair value.

Based on the same framework, the present market quote therefore registers roughly a 47% discount relative to the computed valuation.

Author's view

The creator of the chart argued that maintaining prices below that balancing band will not be sustainable for an extended period.

«It will not be possible to keep the price below this level for long.»

Market implications

If the model's signal materializes, allocators and traders may reassess positions, narrowing the gap between spot prices and suggested fair value.

However, models based on liquidity inputs depend on assumptions and timing, which can produce wide valuation swings over short horizons.

Methodology and caveats

The report does not disclose full model parameters in its chart, and users should treat the estimate as one scenario among many.

Market participants will watch liquidity and flow indicators to evaluate whether prices converge toward the model's balancing level around $165,000.