According to analysts at Lookonchain, a Polymarket user lost $2.36 million after eight days of active trading on the platform.

Trading activity and outcomes

The trader placed 53 wagers across spread markets on sporting events, achieving a win rate of 47% overall according to the report.

Positions were opened with large stakes, often exceeding $200,000, and in some instances rising above $1,000,000, without hedging or early exits.

Payouts and losses

Individual trades sometimes returned up to 150%, but a sequence of losing bets erased gains and produced concentrated losses during the eight-day period.

Lookonchain highlights that even accurate selections cannot prevent losses when position sizing and risk controls are absent or inconsistent.

Risk management lesson

Analysts emphasize that on prediction markets, controlling exposure and limiting stake size are critical to preserve capital and avoid outsized drawdowns.

Without stop-loss mechanisms or hedging strategies, large single-event positions can generate rapid negative swings, as the example on Polymarket demonstrates.