The U.S. Supreme Court may issue a ruling today on tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s administration, a decision with potential market-wide consequences.

Background

Donald Trump warned that an adverse ruling would oblige the United States to return «hundreds of billions of dollars», highlighting fiscal stakes.

«We will have to return hundreds of billions of dollars»

— said Donald Trump

Market odds

According to Polymarket, the market probability that the Supreme Court will deem the tariffs lawful stands at 29%, reflected in prediction markets.

Implications

A negative ruling could prompt rapid fiscal re-estimations, increasing budget pressures and prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk assets broadly.

Markets for equities, government bonds and cryptocurrencies may see immediate repricing as liquidity conditions adjust and risk premia expand.

Traders and asset managers will monitor the Supreme Court announcement closely and prepare contingency plans for swift portfolio adjustments if necessary.

What to watch

Market participants will watch the court’s opinion, official statements on liabilities and any government announcements about budgetary measures following the verdict.

Short-term volatility may increase around the announcement, while medium-term effects will depend on the scale of legal and fiscal remedies adopted.