Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said investors should not expect a repeat of the 2020–2021 altcoin rally.

Market breadth indicator shows long decline

Cowen pointed to the Advance/Decline Index for the top-100 cryptocurrencies as the key metric, noting it has trended steadily downward since the end of 2021.

This indicator measures the number of advancing versus declining coins and, according to Cowen, reflects a persistent narrowing of market participation that began after the 2021 cycle.

Different drivers behind current Bitcoin gains

Whereas the 2020–2021 rally was supported by broad altcoin strength and fresh retail liquidity, Cowen says current Bitcoin appreciation is driven mainly by defensive flows and institutional buying.

He adds that altcoins are losing investor interest and liquidity, which contrasts with the earlier phase when momentum rotated across smaller tokens and projects.

Supply dynamics and dilution of volumes

Cowen highlighted the continuous issuance of new tokens as an additional pressure on existing altcoins, arguing that frequent launches fragment trading volumes and attention across the market.

That process, in his view, reduces the odds of a coordinated altcoin upswing comparable to what occurred in 2021.

«The Bitcoin bull market masked altcoins' weakness for years. Now that the rally has stalled, that weakness has become too visible to ignore.»

— Benjamin Cowen

Implications for investors

Cowen’s assessment suggests that market breadth should be monitored closely, since a persistent downtrend in advance/decline metrics may limit opportunities for a broad altcoin rebound.

He recommends attention to liquidity and participation indicators rather than relying on Bitcoin’s price action alone when assessing altcoin prospects.