Ark Invest released a set of projected endpoint prices for bitcoin in 2030, presenting three scenarios with explicit numerical targets.

Price scenarios

The firm quantifies three outcomes for BTC by 2030: a bear-case at $300 000, a base-case at $710 000, and a bull-case at $1.5 million.

Drivers of expected growth

Ark identifies several structural drivers likely to influence these outcomes, notably expanding ETF inflows and increased institutional allocations to crypto assets.

• Crypto ETFs: continued capital inflows into exchange-traded products support price formation through demand concentration.
• Institutional investment: larger allocations from asset managers and corporate treasuries could lift market depth and valuation.
• Store-of-value thesis: strengthening perception of BTC as a form of digital gold may attract long-term holders.
• Monetary and liquidity factors: lower volatility and potential Federal Reserve easing could improve risk-on conditions and restore liquidity.
• Regulatory clarity: clearer U.S. rules and prospects for ETFs that incorporate staking could broaden the investor base.
• Sovereign interest and asset rotation: some states’ engagement and capital flows from gold into bitcoin are noted as incremental catalysts.

Framework and implications

Ark’s analysis connects macro liquidity, regulatory developments, and institutional demand to price trajectories, stressing that realized outcomes depend on the interplay of these factors.