Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer for fixed income, has emerged as a leading contender to become the next Federal Reserve chair.

Market probabilities on Polymarket show his chances rising from 6% to 54% within a single week, according to reports.

Developments

The Financial Times reports that the U.S. Treasury has already engaged major investors in informal discussions about Rieder's potential nomination. Rieder oversees BlackRock's bond strategies managing assets exceeding $2.4 trillion, a scale that positions him prominently among market participants.

Earlier favorite and concerns

Previously, White House advisor Kevin Hassett was viewed as the frontrunner, but some investors express concern about weakening the Federal Reserve's independence. Market participants are reassessing probabilities and potential policy trajectories as betting markets and investor conversations adapt to shifting expectations.

Context

Polymarket's rapid change in odds has drawn attention to how prediction markets react to news and informal discussions among policymakers and large investors. The Financial Times note of Treasury engagement suggests the candidacy is being discussed at senior levels, without indicating any formal nomination process.