Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin reported profits of approximately $70,000 from prediction markets over the past year, deploying about $440,000 in capital.

Reported returns and capital used

According to the co-founder, his aggregate gains for the last year were roughly $70,000, achieved while allocating near $440,000 across various markets and positions.

Approach and rationale

Buterin characterises his method as anti-insanity mode, targeting markets where prices reflect emotional overreactions rather than measured probabilities.

«anti-insanity mode»

He argues that many participants assign excessive weight to unlikely outcomes under the influence of panic and hype, producing persistent mispricings exploitable by disciplined, patient traders.

Examples of trades

As concrete examples, he cited positions against extreme scenarios, such as the proposition that Donald Trump would receive the Nobel Peace Prize and bets opposing a sudden complete reset of the US dollar.

• Placed a position predicting that Donald Trump would not receive the Nobel Peace Prize.
• Bet against a sudden and total devaluation or nullification of the US dollar.

Buterin emphasises that capitalising on such distortions requires cold calculation and a long-term orientation, rather than reacting to short-lived emotional spikes in market sentiment.