Markets are preparing for the Federal Reserve announcement scheduled today at 21:00, with investors focused on policy signals.

Market odds and expectations

CME Group data indicate a 97.2% probability that the federal funds rate will remain at 3.75%, and a 2.8% probability of a 25 basis points cut. Traders have priced these odds into short-term contracts and positioning ahead of the statement release.

Even if the Committee keeps the rate unchanged, accompanying language on economic outlook and inflation expectations may reshape market trajectories later this week.

Powell's press conference and market impact

The press conference by Fed chair Jerome Powell will begin at 21:30, and markets expect detailed responses to recent inflation and labor data. Commentary from Powell typically affects risk sentiment across equities, fixed income and digital-asset markets.

In particular, cryptocurrency prices have shown sensitivity to central bank communication, so any shift in tone could trigger heightened volatility in crypto trading sessions that follow the press remarks.

Participants will monitor forward guidance, forecasts and any signals on the timing of future policy moves to reassess portfolios and liquidity management strategies.